Before Kathryn Schulz there was Dr. Doom

I have been obsessed with the Cascadia subduction zone for close to a decade now.

I have read countless articles and reports so I can understand the impact this potential devastation may have on my family here in Portland and also my family residing in Coos Bay.

During my research I was always fascinated with Dr. Robert Yeats, professor emeritus of geology at Oregon State University. I recall hearing of his earthquake “nonsense” in the 1990’s. My parents dismissed “Dr. Doom” as rubbish; however, my late grandmother swore that Coos Bay had an earthquake when she was growing up. She spent a lifetime within a two block radius in Coos Bay and she showed me the sidewalk crack (that’s still there BTW) that allegedly appeared after a tremor during her upbringing. It was a bit of lore in my family, however, in 1991 I was in Albany with my grandparents and while on the phone with my mother I hear “The house is swaying!  We are having an earthquake!”  And they did. It was a magnitude 6.6 on July 12, 1991 off the coast of Coos Bay. Everyone (but Dr. Doom) was stunned.

Perhaps Grandma was right.

Deep down, I knew Dr. Doom was on to something.

Fast forward, a few decades and along comes writer Kathryn Schulz. Bravo, Ms. Schulz. You have the attention of the Pacific Northwest and I am hopeful your article will save lives in the long-run.

Dr. Doom never had the audience and now the message is being heard loud and clear.

Thank you – many members of my family are finally listening… I can’t thank you enough.

I am hopeful your message will save many lives throughout the northwest.

PNW Geologists Learn From Other Earthquakes

 

I would like to applaud geologists for always looking to improve our reporting and forecasting for a 9.0 earthquake.

One thing to note, the state of Oregon re-forecast their tsunami maps after the Japanese earthquake. I assume they took into account how the water flowed in Japan and compared it to the topography along our coastline. For instance, before 2008 the map essentially said the people of Coos Bay would be affected along the beaches (which are a distance from the actual town) and the bay would possibly have a surge similar to the 11-foot tides in the winter months (with 11-foot tides in Coos Bay, the water will reach Highway 101 slightly but not much).

After 2011, the Japanese earthquake showed a more aggressive tsunami and US geologists realized this could happen along our coastline. So they reforecast. Now, a tsunami in Coos Bay can reach all the way out into Libby through the sloughs that feed from the bay. It seems crazy… I would have to drive 15 minutes to get to a beach from the area yet a tsunami will wind its way through various sloughs, tributaries and marshes overflowing into parts of some secluded inland areas. Following the geologist’s logic and looking at the land and understanding the area (my grandparents owned the large ranch in the Libby area where the tsunami inundation zone essentially “ends”) – it makes absolute sense. It’s marshy most of the year even during the summer months. This is conjecture on my part, but the land likely dropped from the 1700 earthquake making it a marsh similar to some parts of Anchorage after 1964. The terrain is similar in texture.

The same goes for a tsunami that might reach Coos Bay’s Blossom Gulch elementary school – which was illustrated in the state’s re-forecast after the Japanese quake. Again, it seems outlandish since you can’t even see water from the grade school but I appreciate the geologists taking into account what happened in Japan and forecasting how that would look along areas such as Coos Bay.  If you live there and understand the lay of the land – it’s logical and makes sense.  I assume it’s the same for other coastal communities.

Thank you to the many subject matter experts and researchers who are working to save lives.

Water Heaters: When the Earth Shakes it’s a 600 lb Missile Sitting in Your Garage

Water heater sm

Water heater sm (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

This may sound dramatic which I am at times (just ask my husband about my infamous hyperbole over the years) but we are all sitting on a potential 600 pound “Missile” in our homes. A full size water heater can be extremely dangerous if it’s not anchored when a megathrust earthquake hits.

In fact, according to the State of Oregon Building Codes Division: “The water heater seismic strapping requirements and applicableseismic zones have changed with the adoption of the new codes. Now all water heaters under the 2005 Oregon Plumbing Specialty Code statewide must be strapped. Water heaters installed in buildings within the scope of the 2005 Oregon Residential Specialty Code are required to be strapped in all counties in the state except the following: Wasco, Jefferson, Deschutes, Crook, Sherman, Wheeler, Gilliam, Marrow, Grant, Harney, Umatilla, Union, Baker, Malheur and Wallowa.”

Sample Product (this is not an endorsement, I just pulled the top ranking site that popped up on Google):

http://reviews.homedepot.com/1999/100067210/10-3-in-w-x-13-2-in-d-x-2-in-h-galvanized-steel-water-heater-earthquake-restraining-straps-reviews/reviews.htm

I urge everyone to anchor their water heaters before the big one hits, however, I have to add this story that I happen to find very interesting, ironic, sad, whatever… you decide.  We had our water heater replaced and I was informed by the plumber that I need to anchor it down. Not a problem. I went to… now I dislike using store names but I am going to do it this once since I know this large company (like the company I work for) has a listening tool and Google Alerts set to notify their Marketing team back at their headquarters when their brand is referenced online and I want them to see their “logic” at work. OK, so I went to Lowes in Tigard and I asked for an earthquake restraining strap. The clerk on the West side of Portland told me that they don’t have any in this particular store. I was puzzled. She then proceeded to tell me that earthquake straps are available on the East side of the Willamettte River. Huh? I countered that the subduction zone is off the Oregon coast and last time I checked the Pacific is to the west of the Willamette. In fact, the west side of Portland is probably a bit more vulnerable due to the additional proximity to the fault. The clerk nodded and agreed but then she said “try explaining this to our distribution center in North Carolina. In their mind the only thing threatening our area in Mt. Saint Helens.” Really?!? That’s just so…. 1980. So Lowes Companies, Inc. (I am really trying to hit their alerts now) will you please advise your distribution center that seismic straps need to be distributed to ALL of your Portland stores?!?

And, since Home Depot being another large corporation has alerts set up for their competitors (I know this because our company does this) as well, Hi Home Depot, can you please check to ensure that all of your Oregon & Washington stores carry this strap vs. only having it in one store for a silly reason like Lowes… Thanks.

Reference Link:

Click to access Int100.pdf

A Prediction of 10,000 deaths in the Northwest

I read a study recently discussed on KGW which stated scientists estimate 10,000 people in the Northwest will perish from this megaquake…. this gives me chills. I’m not an overly religious person but I actually catch myself saying a little prayer that my children are not among the casualties. I really, really pray they always remain safe and this earthquake doesn’t occur in their (very long) lifetime.

Unfortunately, I can see this large body count happening after growing up along the coast. The news of the earthquake is a slap in the face and many live in denial. I feel there was almost a false sense of security that “we live God’s country” – we don’t have tornadoes (BTW, I read that one did touchdown in Coos County about 30 plus years ago), no hurricanes (OK, we will not count the Columbus Day storm, where winds at Cape Blanco were well over 145 mph), no black widow spiders (we have the Hobo Spider and they are nasty little suckers), but all in all…. it’s a pretty tame environment or at least so I thought.

Many residents may think that they can muscle through this event, which they may and I hope they do, but without knowing where is safe and where landslides

English: Damage from the Columbus Day Storm of...

English: Damage from the Columbus Day Storm of 1962 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

may occur, how can you truly be safe?

I implore anyone living along the coasts of Washington and Oregon… know the path of a tsunami whether it’s from a local earthquake or a distant one. (The paths may vary depending on the location of the seismic activity) It will surprise you.

Have a plan and execute it flawlessly.

Evacuation Maps:

Oregon

http://www.oregongeology.com/sub/earthquakes/coastal/Tsubrochures.htm

Washington

Click to access ger_tsunami_inundation_maps.pdf

KGW Article:

http://www.kgw.com/home/Report-makes-chilling-forecast-on-NW-quake-198444741.html

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